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The auto industry has been showing fantastical prototypes of futuristic cars since the fifties, but in reality the automobile has actually changed very little since then. Science fiction prepared us for flying-saucerlike cars in the next millennium; however, as we approach the year 2000, these new vehicles are far more sober than we might have expected. The private car of the next century will have to confront real global issues, such as overcrowding, pollution, and finite reserves of fuel with an uneven worldwide distribution, that some believe have already reached a crisis point. Internationally we face a drastic intensification of all of these issues if the proliferation of the auto in developing nations takes place as
predicted in the early part of the next century. The most dramatic forecasts suggest that in 2010 India will have thirty-six times more cars then it does now and China may have as many as ninety-one times its present rate. These kinds of increases could wreak havoc on the earth's ecosystem.
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Photo: Michael Moran
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Globally, overcrowding already exists in many urban areas-conspicuous in the "go slows" of Lagos, midtown traffic in New York City, or the rush-hour crunch in Los Angeles. Cities like São Paulo, Caracas, and Bogota have already begun to regulate what day of the week a given car can be driven. In some instances the large number of cars literally on the road puts intolerable strain on the infrastructure of urban centers that were planned too long ago to assimilate the growing numbers. A direct consequence of this congestion is, of course, pollution and smog, which have already reached critical points in places like Los Angeles, Hong Kong, and Mexico City. Automotive emissions also significantly contribute to the greenhouse effect that many say is stimulating global warming and will lead to catastrophic environmental circumstances in the next century. Further, we face the fact that the petroleum reserves may at some point dry up. However, because of the basic lack of knowledge about possible reserves and our ability to recover them, this remains a most controversial subject. Despite this debate, the political turmoil and instability created by an uneven distribution of oil reserves recommend that conservation is a worthwhile endeavor.
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